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Compare verified global-event prediction market YES prices and payouts if YES across Kalshi and Polymarket.
New here? Buy YES at 40% (40¢). It pays $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if it doesn’t. A lower price means your $100 buys more contracts.
Payouts assume YES and include your original stake, before fees. Prices can change.
Follow Congress, governors and key statewide races. See how Kalshi and Polymarket price the same outcomes.
These are market prices, not our predictions. We check that contracts cover the same outcome before comparing them. Lower % means a cheaper YES.
Lower % means a cheaper YES price. Green marks the lower valid price; ties are labelled. Displayed prices are rounded to whole percentages, while comparisons use exact quotes. Payout examples show the total returned on $100 if the outcome resolves YES, including your original stake. If it resolves NO, you receive $0. Examples exclude fees and assume the full $100 buys at the displayed price.
See both prices at a glance. Open a market to explore every outcome.
Last verified snapshots, before fees. Live comparisons replace these when the feed connects.
| Outcome | Kalshi YES | Polymarket YES |
|---|---|---|
| the Republic of the Congo to report a confirmed Ebola case in 2026 | 21% | 35% |
| the United States to report a confirmed Ebola case in 2026 | 18% | 24% |
| China to report a confirmed Ebola case in 2026 | 9% | 15% |
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The lowest valid price comes first. We don’t currently earn referral fees from the venues shown. Any future paid partnerships will be disclosed and will never change the price ranking.