What earns a story?
A meaningful change in expectations, a revealing disagreement, or a gap between the headline and the contract’s actual terms. Each story needs sourced context, our interpretation, a countercase and a specific next test. A large price change by itself is not enough.
How often do you publish?
One weekly briefing, with two to four researched stories. An occasional post-weekend NFL edition examines changes to championship, playoff or season expectations. An exceptional, verified last-play comeback can also earn a place; routine in-game swings do not. We skip editions when the reporting is not ready.
What makes a comeback worth covering?
A remarkable win on the final play, with a recorded low price just before it happened. We show the price path, the decisive play and, where complete trade records are available, how much was spent buying the winning outcome at the unlikely price.
A separate $100 illustration shows the total returned and profit before fees, assuming a full purchase at that price held through a winning settlement. It is not a claim about anyone’s actual winnings. Missing trade data is labelled unavailable.
What is automated and what is reviewed?
Our weekly process prepares a research shortlist. Publication requires a fresh editorial review tied to the exact observations used in the article, source links and a check of the exact contract status. Forward-looking stories require an open outcome; comeback stories require confirmed winning settlements. A shortlist never publishes itself as analysis.
How should I read the numbers?
Charts show recorded Kalshi YES asks and Polymarket sell-side asks as percentages, before fees. Both venues must share an observation timestamp. Start and end values use three-observation medians. The 0–100% scale is fixed; invalid observations and gaps longer than six hours break the line. Comeback charts break at gaps over one minute and show the final result separately from purchase prices. A price move is not an investment return.
Separate outcome prices are not normalized probabilities. Trade totals are gross activity, not net inflows or a forecast. Our interpretation is identified separately from sourced facts.
Download the edition’s price observations →How do you handle uncertainty and older editions?
We distinguish a possible explanation from an established cause. We retain dated editions and their recorded evidence, so readers can see what was known at publication. Older movement roundups remain in the archive; they use the earlier editorial format.
