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US Government Company Stakes · 2026: compare 14 verified outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. Find the cheaper YES price, before fees.
New here? Buy YES at 40% (40¢). It pays $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if it doesn’t. A lower price means your $100 buys more contracts.
Payouts assume YES and include your original stake, before fees. Prices can change.
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These are market prices, not our predictions. We check that contracts cover the same outcome before comparing them. Lower % means a cheaper YES.
Lower % means a cheaper YES price. Green marks the lower valid price; ties are labelled. Displayed prices are rounded to whole percentages, while comparisons use exact quotes. Payout examples show the total returned on $100 if the outcome resolves YES, including your original stake. If it resolves NO, you receive $0. Examples exclude fees and assume the full $100 buys at the displayed price.
See both prices at a glance. Open a market to explore every outcome.
Verified snapshot. Oldest quote: 08 Nov 2026, 22:05 UTC. A lower percentage is the cheaper YES, so the same $100 buys more contracts. The last column is what that $100 returns in total at the cheaper price if the outcome resolves YES, before venue fees. Live prices replace this table when the feed connects. Prices are rounded; comparisons use exact quotes. Unreliable or lightly traded comparisons are not ranked.
| Outcome | Kalshi YES | Polymarket YES | Cheaper venue | $100 returns if YES |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anduril Industries, Inc. to receive a US government stake in 2026 | 10% | 8% | Polymarket | $1,250 |
| Anthropic PBC to receive a US government stake in 2026 | 7% | 7% | Polymarket | $1,449 |
| Eli Lilly and Company to receive a US government stake in 2026 | 8% | 10% | Kalshi | $1,250 |
| Freeport-McMoRan Inc. to receive a US government stake in 2026 | 8% | 8% | Polymarket | $1,266 |
| IonQ, Inc. to receive a US government stake in 2026 | 6% | 7% | Kalshi | $1,667 |
| Lockheed Martin Corporation to receive a US government stake in 2026 | 5% | 5% | Polymarket | $2,083 |
| Micron Technology, Inc. to receive a US government stake in 2026 | 5% | 4% | Polymarket | $2,439 |
| NVIDIA Corporation to receive a US government stake in 2026 | 8% | 7% | Polymarket | $1,429 |
| OpenAI to receive a US government stake in 2026 | 7% | 9% | Kalshi | $1,429 |
| Palantir Technologies Inc. to receive a US government stake in 2026 | 9% | 7% | Polymarket | $1,408 |
| Pfizer Inc. to receive a US government stake in 2026 | 7% | 8% | Kalshi | $1,429 |
| The Boeing Company to receive a US government stake in 2026 | 7% | 6% | Polymarket | $1,667 |
| TikTok USDS Joint Venture LLC or Bytedance to receive a US government stake in 2026 | 4% | 6% | Kalshi | $2,500 |
| Unusual Machines to receive a US government stake in 2026 | 15% | 18% | Kalshi | $667 |
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The lowest valid price comes first. We don’t currently earn referral fees from the venues shown. Any future paid partnerships will be disclosed and will never change the price ranking.