33 paired observations · 47.2 hours recorded. Start/end figures use the median of three quotes; dots show individual observations.
What stands out
The difference between the two venues narrowed: 1 points at the start and 0.3 points at the end of the recorded period. The selected venue’s price crossed the 50% mark between the beginning and end of this period.
This is a record of price changes. No external cause or final result is inferred from the chart.
Source: PredictionCompare’s saved purchase-price observations. Kalshi YES ask and Polymarket CLOB sell-side ask, displayed as percentages. Rolling source history ↗
The source history rolls forward. The edition’s frozen CSV preserves the values behind this chart.
Settlement terms: Cancellation/postponement terms differ: Polymarket keeps a postponed game open and settles a fully canceled game as Draw, while Kalshi may settle at a fair price if the game is canceled or moved more than 48 hours. Normal full-time settlement is equivalent.
New York Mets to win New York Mets vs San Francisco Giants
Kalshi63% → 1%−62 points
Polymarket64% → 0.1%−63.9 points
KalshiPolymarketYES purchase price
110 paired observations · 19.2 hours recorded. Start/end figures use the median of three quotes; dots show individual observations.
What stands out
The difference between the two venues narrowed: 1 points at the start and 0.9 points at the end of the recorded period. The selected venue’s price crossed the 50% mark between the beginning and end of this period.
This is a record of price changes. No external cause or final result is inferred from the chart.
Source: PredictionCompare’s saved purchase-price observations. Kalshi YES ask and Polymarket CLOB sell-side ask, displayed as percentages. Rolling source history ↗
The source history rolls forward. The edition’s frozen CSV preserves the values behind this chart.
Settlement terms: Cancellation/postponement and tie boilerplate differs between venues; a tie is not a possible result of a completed game in this league. Normal completed-game settlement is equivalent.
A draw in Schalke 04 vs Bayern Munich: the YES price rose 60 points
Draw to be the result in Schalke 04 vs Bayern Munich
Kalshi10% → 70%+60 points
Polymarket10% → 70%+60 points
KalshiPolymarketYES purchase price
47 paired observations · 43.9 hours recorded. Start/end figures use the median of three quotes; dots show individual observations.
What stands out
The difference between the two venues held steady: 0 points at the start and 0 points at the end of the recorded period. The selected venue’s price crossed the 50% mark between the beginning and end of this period.
This is a record of price changes. No external cause or final result is inferred from the chart.
Source: PredictionCompare’s saved purchase-price observations. Kalshi YES ask and Polymarket CLOB sell-side ask, displayed as percentages. Rolling source history ↗
The source history rolls forward. The edition’s frozen CSV preserves the values behind this chart.
Settlement terms: Cancellation/postponement terms differ: Polymarket keeps a postponed game open and settles a fully canceled game as Draw, while Kalshi may settle at a fair price if the game is canceled or moved more than 48 hours. Normal full-time settlement is equivalent.
Source: PredictionCompare’s saved purchase-price observations. Kalshi YES ask and Polymarket CLOB sell-side ask, displayed as percentages. Rolling source history ↗
The source history rolls forward. The edition’s frozen CSV preserves the values behind this chart.
Settlement terms: Cancellation/postponement terms differ: Polymarket keeps a postponed game open and settles a fully canceled game as Draw, while Kalshi may settle at a fair price if the game is canceled or moved more than 48 hours. Normal full-time settlement is equivalent.
Source: PredictionCompare’s saved purchase-price observations. Kalshi YES ask and Polymarket CLOB sell-side ask, displayed as percentages. Rolling source history ↗
The source history rolls forward. The edition’s frozen CSV preserves the values behind this chart.
Settlement terms: Cancellation/postponement terms differ: Polymarket keeps a postponed game open and settles a fully canceled game as Draw, while Kalshi may settle at a fair price if the game is canceled or moved more than 48 hours. Normal full-time settlement is equivalent.
Source: PredictionCompare’s saved purchase-price observations. Kalshi YES ask and Polymarket CLOB sell-side ask, displayed as percentages. Rolling source history ↗
The source history rolls forward. The edition’s frozen CSV preserves the values behind this chart.
Completed YES purchases and sales beside the changing price. These outcomes were still ahead when reviewed.
Buying pressure shows who took the available price. It can accompany a move, but it cannot tell us what happens next.
EconomicsBuying led
Increase rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 Fed meeting
Buying led; the Polymarket YES price rose 3 points.
YES purchases$966,776
YES sales$312,011
75.6% buy share of YES trade value · 2,863 trades
↑ YES purchases↓ YES sales
The price path over the same period
Kalshi48% → 50%+2 points
Polymarket47% → 50%+3 points
Open at review · Contract end Sep 16, 2026. Recorded prices, not a forecast of the result.
What these trades tell us
Polymarket only. Dollar value = YES tokens × execution price. Buy/sell describes the order that took the available price; every trade has both a buyer and a seller. These are gross executed values, not net deposits, outstanding positions, or proof that the trades caused the price move. NO-token trades are excluded.
Trade window: Aug 30, 2026 · 0:05 UTC to Sep 5, 2026 · 18:15 UTC. We retrieved every API page within this window. The seven bars divide it into equal periods; they are not necessarily calendar days. Price endpoints use three-observation medians.
Buying led; the Polymarket YES price rose 4 points.
YES purchases$44,718
YES sales$2,940
93.8% buy share of YES trade value · 142 trades
↑ YES purchases↓ YES sales
The price path over the same period
Kalshi23% → 24%+1 points
Polymarket23% → 27%+4 points
Open at review · Contract end May 30, 2027. Recorded prices, not a forecast of the result.
What these trades tell us
Polymarket only. Dollar value = YES tokens × execution price. Buy/sell describes the order that took the available price; every trade has both a buyer and a seller. These are gross executed values, not net deposits, outstanding positions, or proof that the trades caused the price move. NO-token trades are excluded.
Trade window: Aug 30, 2026 · 0:30 UTC to Sep 5, 2026 · 18:46 UTC. We retrieved every API page within this window. The seven bars divide it into equal periods; they are not necessarily calendar days. Price endpoints use three-observation medians.
George Russell to win the 2026 F1 Drivers' Championship
Buying led; the Polymarket YES price rose 2.3 points.
YES purchases$1,166
YES sales$776
60% buy share of YES trade value · 72 trades
↑ YES purchases↓ YES sales
The price path over the same period
Kalshi7% → 10%+3 points
Polymarket6.4% → 8.7%+2.3 points
Open at review · Contract end Dec 6, 2026. Recorded prices, not a forecast of the result.
What these trades tell us
Polymarket only. Dollar value = YES tokens × execution price. Buy/sell describes the order that took the available price; every trade has both a buyer and a seller. These are gross executed values, not net deposits, outstanding positions, or proof that the trades caused the price move. NO-token trades are excluded.
Trade window: Aug 30, 2026 · 9:25 UTC to Sep 5, 2026 · 18:46 UTC. We retrieved every API page within this window. The seven bars divide it into equal periods; they are not necessarily calendar days. Price endpoints use three-observation medians.
Selected from 16 markets with recent recorded price moves. Only complete trade windows with at least 20 trades and $1,000 in YES trade value qualify. Ranked by activity among that shortlist.
Beyond the chart
Big bets. The story behind the number.
Selected reporting from the archives. Sportsbook wagers, separate from our prediction-market data.
From the archives · MLBNovember 2022
The $75 million headline had a business behind it.
Total wagered$10M
→
Reported winnings$75M
Mattress Mack’s Astros wagers made headlines after the 2022 World Series. The less obvious part: they helped cover a furniture-refund promotion.
ESPN reported the winning wagers; Forbes explained the customer refunds. The headline amount was not his take-home business profit. This was sportsbook betting, not a Kalshi or Polymarket trade.
Original price reporting by PredictionCompare, assembled automatically from our own observations. No invented explanations. No promotion-driven rankings.
What makes a story?
The weekly edition requires an eight-point move, at least eight paired observations over six hours, and at least $10,000 in catalog lifetime volume. That volume is not the amount traded during the chart’s period. We rank substantial moves and activity, favor confirmation across venues, and avoid repeating opposite outcomes from the same event.
How do the charts work?
Only YES purchase asks are compared. The two venues must share an observation timestamp. Invalid quotes and price differences above 25 points are excluded. Start and end values use three-observation medians to reduce isolated ticks. Every chart uses a 0–100% scale and actual timestamps; gaps are visible. A 20% to 35% price move is 15 percentage points, not a 15% investment return.
Our stored history is sampled, so it can miss brief intraday highs and lows. Prices exclude fees and do not verify an eventual result.
When do editions publish?
One weekly edition on Saturdays when at least three distinct stories qualify. An occasional Tuesday NFL edition follows the weekend only when at least two separate NFL events show corroborated moves of 15 points or more, plus an underdog surge, favorite fall or a 20-point reversal. Quiet weeks and routine NFL price changes do not produce filler editions.
Where do reported wins come from?
Media features need a named source, reporting date and a clear distinction between stake, return and profit. Historical examples are labelled. Exceptional wins are selected stories, not evidence of typical returns. A potential payout is never presented as a settled win.
What does this edition cover?
752 of 752 histories retrieved across sports, economics and culture; 116 cleared the movement and data checks. Each chart shows its actual observation period inside the edition’s date window. Some games have only a few hours of history. Charts can cover completed events without treating their final observed quote as a confirmed result.
Selected data is saved with each edition so it remains available after the rolling source history expires.
